r/worldnews Sep 22 '22 Wholesome 7 All-Seeing Upvote 2 Take My Energy 1 Take My Power 1 Silver 2 Helpful 4

Zelenskyy calls on Russians to 'protest' and 'fight back' against Putin's draft if they 'want to survive' Russia/Ukraine

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u/krokodil40 Sep 22 '22 edited Sep 22 '22 Take My Energy

There are 140 millions of russians, 25 millions of them are able to serve. Let's assume 10% of them love Putin, want to fight and are dumb. That's already 2.5 millions, more than enough. Russia will mobilise more than enough soldiers, but they will not make any difference, cause the winter and not enough equipment for them. Limited protests will not change a thing.

If you are russian that wants to avoid the mobilisation: don't open the doors, lay low, delete gosuslugi and sberbank apps. There are enough people that will willingly mobilise, just do go when they want you to come. Change your flat, they need to give you the letter right in your hands and they don't check addresses often. You can cross the border into several countries, do it.

Не открывайте двери, удалите прилаги, не используйте мобильные телефоны. Если повестку дали вашей жене, родителям или детям - выбрасывайте. На работе удаленку. Шлите нахуй. СИЗО лучше войны

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u/Alphal66 Sep 22 '22 Wholesome

Isn't it kinda ironic that the winter is against the Russian army for a change?

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u/reckless150681 Sep 22 '22

Not really. Remember the Winter War? Russia tried invading Finland in the dead of winter and they were 100% not ready.

People like to make "haha don't invade Russia in winter" memes but forget that the Russians themselves are guilty of the very same thing lol

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u/Nobel6skull Sep 22 '22

Also worth mentioning that if you have proper gear the winter ice is far better then the spring mud.

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u/briancbrn Sep 23 '22

Mud is fucking terrible. I once got the pleasure of watching a new driver get a six wheel drive transport truck stuck.

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u/Plasibeau Sep 23 '22

I think about the off road custom built rigs with transfer cases to make a semi truck driver weep and articulated suspension with zero point turning that some guys build. They take these things up sheer cliff faces! The type of mud to stick a SIX wheel drive vehicle must be some other worldly shit because I can't even imagine.

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u/briancbrn Sep 23 '22

Oh nah it ain’t nothing special like that. Just new drivers stopping a massive vehicle in the middle of mud and letting it sink a little.

Still blew my mind that someone actually stopped when you had every tool in your box to just continue through.

3

u/WonAnotherCitizen Sep 23 '22

There's a bit of a weight difference there lol

29

u/the_YellowRanger Sep 23 '22

He started in the spring mud and lost his best equipment to it. If he makes it to next spring, mud will abound

2

u/Winterspawn1 Sep 23 '22

This time a stuck convoy will be destroyed with artillery and MLRS though. Not like early during the war when Ukraine had almost nothing to fight back with.

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u/Mintastic Sep 23 '22

Seems the gist is to just stop having wars in that region in general cuz it sucks ass for everyone involved.

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u/koavf Sep 23 '22

And also hundreds of millions who aren't directly involved.

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u/Perry7609 Sep 23 '22 edited Sep 23 '22

I went to the National World War I Museum in Kansas City not too long ago, and it blew my mind how the mud in the trenches cost so much damage and even lives.

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u/notherenot Sep 22 '22

A meme is a meme at the end of the day, people forget its not a rule and you can't take it too seriously

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u/reckless150681 Sep 23 '22

I want historical accuracy in my historical memes, dammit!

3

u/Alexander_Granite Sep 23 '22

Russia has a problem invading other countries and not quite being ready

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u/crazedizzled Sep 23 '22

People like to make "haha don't invade Russia in winter" memes but forget that the Russians themselves are guilty of the very same thing lol

The trick is, don't invade anyone in winter. It's much easier to be planted and defend in winter than it is to advance.

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u/wires_dont_talk Sep 23 '22

Maybe Ukraine could practice scorched earth policy on the Russians instead of vice versa

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u/reckless150681 Sep 23 '22

Bad idea. Not only is it strategically unsound (why would you make it increasingly difficult for your supply lines to reach you?) but it would also completely undermine the goodwill Ukraine has. Ukraine is winning the moral war by not stooping to Russia's level.

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u/wires_dont_talk Sep 23 '22

True, not everywhere but maybe in areas where they have to worry about being flanked. There's a reason I'm not a military strategist lol.

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u/LMFN Sep 23 '22

Russia also claims Ukraine doesn't have a right to exist and is just part of Russia.

So Russia invaded "Russia" in winter. Morons.

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u/WhuddaWhat Sep 23 '22

Invading Russia?

I guess they have totally overtaken russia. The russians.

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u/Manos_Of_Fate Sep 23 '22

Aren’t there jokes in Russia about the snow speaking Finnish?

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u/Assault_Gunner Sep 23 '22

People are dumbass if they think the Russians are immune to winter.

The Soviet soldiers sent to fight in Finland are folks from cities and villages where they are safe and comfortable around the fireplace. Not to mention alcohol to keep them warm.

The Finnish people spent time in the wilderness, and during winter. Their ancestors taught them how to survive.

1

u/BeautifulType Sep 23 '22

People are like “fuck capitalism” by the real fuckery is that memes influence a whole lotta people into seeing dumber than conservative Americans

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u/RayTracing_Corp Sep 23 '22

Bad example because Russia won that war albeit at a steep cost.

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u/reckless150681 Sep 23 '22

Not a bad example. The lack of Russian preparedness objectively led to innumerable preventable deaths. Strategic victories are not the only type of victory. It's like saying seatbelts are ineffective because they don't outright prevent automotive deaths - true, but they certainly reduce the number and that's enough to talk about.

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u/skolioban Sep 22 '22

Well, the saying is a warning to not invade Russia during winter and Putin claims Ukraine is Russia so....

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u/Mytzplk Sep 22 '22

Contrary to belief, if you wanted to invade Russia it would be during winter when your supply lines are the shortest and more manageable.

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u/dylandgs Sep 23 '22

Is it contrary to belief or contrary to it has happened before in history and those who ignore history are doomed to repeat it?

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u/Mytzplk Sep 23 '22

Both Hitler and Napoleon started their invasion of Russia in the summer time and by the time they were at/near Moscow, they were in the middle of the Russian winter. So no, I'm not ignoring history

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u/AccountantNotEditor Sep 23 '22

To be honest, I don’t think that whole cliche is very accurate to begin with. It’d be more accurate to say that one should not fight a war in Russia during the winter, and even then, one could makes arguments. Hitler and Napoleon did not invade in the winter, as you note, but they fell victim to poor planning, leaving them caught out in the Russian winter. I personally believe the real takeaway, regardless of whatever cliche saying is used, should instead be that logistics and planning wins wars, while a lack thereof will doom any army.

It’s very clear that Russia is lacking in the “logistics and planning” department of warfare, and I believe it will ultimately be that which results in their defeat.

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u/ArcanaVision Sep 23 '22

In fact historically Rus was invaded in all seasons, with spring being the worse.

They even made a game about it. https://spacebiff.com/2022/06/20/nevsky/

Where the Teutonic nights tried to take Novgorod.

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u/JumpyButterscotch Sep 23 '22

Shorter? More manageable? The lines would be under a few feet of snow.

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u/fohpo02 Sep 23 '22

Winter also didn’t change the length of the lines, just the elements they endure

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u/Mytzplk Sep 23 '22

Would it be easier to supply your army under a few feet of snow 50 miles away from your borders or 1,000 miles away?

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u/Duff5OOO Sep 23 '22

Yeah im still lost.

if you wanted to invade Russia it would be during winter when your supply lines are the shortest and more manageable.

Why are they shorter and more manageable?

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u/Chroiche Sep 23 '22 edited Sep 23 '22

Start invasion in summer. Supply line is easy to manage and close to border, so short. Winter comes, supply line now needs to be very long and the snow makes it very hard to maintain. Supply lines are now unmanageable and you get blasted to hell, you lose your gains from summer in the process.

Start invasion in winter. Supply line is hard to manage but short, so it's doable. Summer comes, supply line is a fair bit longer but easier to manage. Supply lines have been consistently manageable.

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u/Flitcheroo Sep 23 '22

Because if you just started to invade, you aren’t that far into the country. Therefor your supply lines are shorter.

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u/Duff5OOO Sep 23 '22

So start your invasion in winter because its a bonus that you will be stuck 50km from your border instead of after winter where you could aim to push significantly further? As far as positives go it's up there with "Invade in winter so half your conscripts freeze to death and you only need to get half the rations to the front!"

I mean, I'm no military strategist but that sounds like a really bad idea.

It seems like Putins going to try a form of this just before winter either way.

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u/martin519 Sep 23 '22

Maybe they're saying that you start in winter and assuming expansion goes into spring? Yeah I'm stretching to understand this too.

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u/LPNDUNE Sep 23 '22

Pretty sure we have the technology to move snow from roads in this day and age.

Solid ground across plains and agricultural areas,as well as being able to move across rivers and lakes freely makes moving supplies easier in the cold.

Spring mud and open water extend your timelines way more than snow on roads.

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u/vanguarde Sep 23 '22

Why would it be shorter? Certainly not more manageable.

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u/littleseizure Sep 23 '22

I think mean starting in winter vs starting in summer and getting to winter - might as well resupply in snow at the start of an invasion than at the end when you’re 1000 miles in

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u/nebaa Sep 23 '22

During summer the supply lines expand due to thermal expansion, learn some physics smh my head

1

u/Several_Swordfish481 Sep 23 '22

When you start an invasion you are not very far from your homeland once you start to take territory, assuming success, as your invasion continues, your occupying soldiers become located farther and farther from your homeland.

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u/the_YellowRanger Sep 23 '22

He done fucked up.

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u/KingoftheMongoose Sep 23 '22

Never start a land war in Asia!

...whoops

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u/Few_Advisor3536 Sep 22 '22

Germany’s supply lines were cut and the winter in russia was harsh. Soviet troops also suffered in the winter during ww2. They werent immune to the cold. Sub zero temperatures dont pick sides. The russians are going to struggle as an invader but ive been worrying about the winter for ukranians since the war began. Without proper shelter their people will also suffer especially the old.

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u/Dense-Nectarine2280 Sep 22 '22

Germany was stretched out and didn't get resupplied. The Luftwaffe was supposed to resupply the army, but Hitlers head at that time was too far up his own ass, and refused to listen to his generals.

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u/kreschatka Sep 23 '22

Stalingrad/Volgograd is almost 3000 km from Berlin. That’s a long supply line especially in 1940s. Ukraine is on its own turf. And if they can get ATACMS. They can wreck the supply lines.

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u/Dense-Nectarine2280 Sep 23 '22

The germans did so much wrong in the Russian campaign.

They allready had Poland and most of Ukrain, they could go for Moscow, but chose stalingrad instead, out of spite I think. Hitler hated Stalin. The problem was, when that plan didn't work, Hitler just abandonded the whole campaign, and made sure noone in germany found out.

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u/kreschatka Sep 23 '22

Plus the Germans were fighting on two fronts.

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u/Dense-Nectarine2280 Sep 23 '22

True. A bad move. They also failed in securing the oil fields of Azerbaijan. So they also went out of fuel

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u/Kaymish_ Sep 23 '22

They really needed the oilfields in the caucuses; it would have been a double blow. Reducing the fuel available to the Soviets and giving the Germans a fuel injection they desperately needed.

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u/SiarX Sep 23 '22

They went for Moscow in 1941, in did not work. They went for Stalingrad in 1942 because it was critically important for succesful Baku (i.e. capturing oil fields) campaign and cutting off water supply through Volga.

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u/ukchinouk Sep 23 '22

Head too far up his ass to listen? That sounds kinda familiar…

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u/CyberMindGrrl Sep 23 '22

Craniarectal Syndrome is a common disease for dictators.

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u/Dense-Nectarine2280 Sep 23 '22

Yeah, megalomaniacs tend to exercise the same behaviour at some point

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u/6501 Sep 23 '22

The Luftwaffe also told Hitler they could supply the army when they couldn't, probably because they were scared that saying no would lead to them being shot or something.

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u/nashedPotato4 Sep 23 '22

The fact that Putin has people of influence speaking out against him now tells you how crazy shit has gotten.

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u/Dense-Nectarine2280 Sep 23 '22

This could go to crazytown on the crazytrain

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u/[deleted] Sep 23 '22 edited Oct 05 '22

[deleted]

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u/Dense-Nectarine2280 Sep 23 '22

Nice summary friend. Apreciate the effort :) Would give you a coin, but don't have any atm

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u/BadMcSad Sep 23 '22 edited Sep 23 '22

Thing is, if every single combatant soldier on both sides throughout the entirety of Russia had died to hypothermia, that'd still mean a failed invasion for the Nazi's. I'd argue nature usually picks the defenders' side if it decides to participate. It's just kinda stupid and doesn't really pay attention when you're asking it to stop killing friendlies.

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u/WizardGoo Sep 23 '22

I was wondering about this the other day. Does nothing exist that can keep soldiers warm in the winter?

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u/nashedPotato4 Sep 23 '22

Saying at home in front of the fire and not invading other countries.

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u/Gwtheyrn Sep 23 '22

As far as the soldiers go, the allies are getting sub-zero gear ready to ship over. They know what the Ukrainians need.

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u/WizardGoo Sep 23 '22

I was wondering about this the other day. Does nothing exist that can keep soldiers warm enough in the winter?

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u/nashedPotato4 Sep 23 '22

(see above)

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u/NoPattern1 Sep 23 '22

NATO announced last month that they were outfitting Ukraine with cold weather gear. NATO countries constantly do cold weather training so their stuff is well tested and works. Ukrainian soldiers should be nice and toast when they step over the orcsicles.

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u/Combocore Sep 22 '22 edited Sep 23 '22

You know, the Red Army shot 16,000 of their own men at Stalingrad. And of course, the majority of the Wehrmacht had no winter clothing. See, by the winter of '42, the whole city was surrounded by the massed 6th army. It was pressing, and pressing; the Russians couldn't hold on much longer. Many wanted to submit.

The German supply lines were stretched. Zhukov countered... and the siege was broken. And that's all the story of Stalingrad.

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u/SgtSting Sep 23 '22

Mark, you know I don't just bang anyone, yeah? I'm not some kind of nextdoor fuck jar.

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u/CaptainLegkick Sep 23 '22

Glad someone else was reading this in their Mark voice.

"Johnson!"

"Mark?!"

"Johnson!!"

"Mark!!"

-1

u/davser Sep 23 '22

By far this was the battle were most people died.

Every one of those people have an history.

I understand your try of a summary, but this battle have so much argument that a summary will always fail.

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u/Combocore Sep 23 '22

Just stay mute, /u/combocore. You’re a social freak. Remain in your compound.

0

u/davser Sep 23 '22

I didn’t say that at all.

But when you say “that’s all the story of Stalingrad” it looks like it was a common tedious battle.

And I’m sure that’s not what you think and not what’s the battle was.

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u/Decyde Sep 23 '22

It's against both sides.

Ukraine asked for winter gear for its soilders and I'm not sure if it came yet.

It will obviously come but if winter comes early this year, the world will be fucked.

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u/TheBigIdiotSalami Sep 22 '22

Can't beat the odds every time.

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u/Aoae Sep 23 '22

Not sure why people are focusing on this detail. The idea is to mobilize soldiers now and train them over the winter so that they will be combat-ready in the spring. How effectively this can be done by the current Russian military is a different matter.

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u/kento502 Sep 23 '22

It turns out the winter is always against the Nazis!

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u/Xilizhra Sep 23 '22

That's because they're always invading.

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u/TheMadmanAndre Sep 23 '22

Putin not only invaded Russia in winter (in his mind he thinks Ukraine is Russia), he also started a land war in Asia (The east of Ukraine is technically Asia).

So yeah, there's a good reason he's doing so poorly now.

1

u/EntropicFade Sep 23 '22

I am kind of curious how climate change will affect Ukraines weather this winter if at all.

1

u/joshak Sep 23 '22

Is it though? It seems like Russia is currently on the back foot so having winter to bed down, train reserves and reinforce their stolen territory would benefit them.

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u/NewlyMintedAdult Sep 22 '22

Let's assume 10% of them love Putin, want to fight and are dumb.

Those are really generous numbers. We know they are generous because Russia has been actively recruiting for volunteers and getting little in the way of recruits. That is why they had to declare a mobilization in the first place; they weren't getting anywhere near the people they needed by recruiting from just volunteers.

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u/Grogosh Sep 23 '22

Russians fully expected their war to be fought by the hicks from the far off villages. They never fully expect to fight themselves. Its like the Capitol in Hunger Games.

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u/nashedPotato4 Sep 23 '22

Basically,"our hicks can beat your hicks!" was how Putin saw it. Ukraine not only called but went all in. Oops

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u/Flexfood Sep 23 '22

Russians? Bruh, Russians do not want to fight a war. They do not "expect" anything. They are now forced into a war just by being in that country. Ignorant kid comparing real world to a young adult novel.

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u/exit2dos Sep 23 '22

~10% would be the entire Russian demographic for the 19-34 age group. Now with 'voluntary' enlistments and reactivations from the 35-60(?) age group, it is a no-win situation for anykind of economic recovery. The workforce is depleated for the next 20 years.

Edit: I realize percentages don't come from groups like that, but it shows the effect, on the overall population

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u/supersecretpudding Sep 22 '22

world war Z style

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u/vontysk Sep 23 '22

That's true, but there is a difference between "I want to volunteer", "if I'm drafted I'll go" and "I won't go".

Most US draftees in Vietnam might not have wanted to be there, but they didn't burn their draft cards or run to Canada. They didn't volunteer, but they turned up when asked and fought for Uncle Sam and his empire all the same.

So to this guy's point - let the middle group fill the spaces. If you're in group 3 then act like it - hide from the draft or escape to (the equivalent of) Canada

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u/Cloudboy9001 Sep 23 '22

Why is this upvoted? There is no need for this hypothetical 2.5M number when there are reports of recruiting from homeless shelters and prisons (with video evidence of the latter). Clearly few Russians want to die in this bogus war.

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u/dilloj Sep 23 '22

How are they going to pay these 2.5 million? Transport them? Arm them? Train them?

It's an absolute fantasy.

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u/vitaminkombat Sep 23 '22

Not only that. It would mean 2.5 million quitting their jobs.

So many sudden vacancies would be hard for the economy to deal with.

I assume most younger men work in Infrastructure and agriculture. Which are the two areas you don't want a mass quitting.

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u/RosemaryFocaccia Sep 23 '22

A lot of Russians lost their jobs when Western countries exited. If they are claiming any sort of unemployment benefit they will be on government records. Easy for Putin's regime to select fighting age males from that list and mail them.

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u/vitaminkombat Sep 23 '22

I am surprised Russia has any unemployment benefit .

I'm from a socialist / communist country and we don't have any government assistance for the unemployed. It doesn't really fit with our political ideology. I always viewed it as a western thing.

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u/Tyhgujgt Sep 23 '22

Pay?

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u/Cloudboy9001 Sep 23 '22

They tried that. Conscription is when pay and ideology fails.

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u/DisposableMiner Sep 23 '22

You still pay conscripts.

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u/Alexander_Granite Sep 23 '22

My guess it less than the normal troop. They had the chance to sign up with bonuses. Why waste the money when they don’t have a choice?

The Russian government said the first group so be young with military and combat experience. Why do they need to be trained?

0

u/RayTracing_Corp Sep 23 '22

You do realise far bigger armies have been raised in history?

WW2 had times when million man field armies were made from scratch in mere months. This isn’t some unprecedented task. They might be able to do it.

1

u/dilloj Sep 23 '22

Sure, but if you look at the track record of the prepared Russian army, which has been mobilizing in that region since 2014, I think that record is pretty laughable.

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u/krokodil40 Sep 23 '22

Those 10% are a few people that want to die. Point is that russia has enough people willing to mobilise, so those who don't want to should not at any costs

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u/Cloudboy9001 Sep 23 '22

You don't have a point because there aren't a lot of people willing to mobilise. Hence the video of recruiting from a prison, the joke military, and the draft,

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u/krokodil40 Sep 23 '22

Russians don't volunteer, they might like the idea, but they just don't do unless someone said to them to do. Google images for: набережные челны мобилизация - "Naberezhnye Chelny mobilisation" from russian.

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u/Poker_f Sep 23 '22

Recruiting from prison is not connected to the mobilisation, but to Prygozhin and Vagner group. Its not government officials who mobilise them, since its illegal (laws are more of a suggestion, but still). So Prygozhin took his power to fill the gaps in his PMC with prisoners, to whom he promised forgiveness from the government.

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u/JohnyyBanana Sep 22 '22

I say go but as soon as you leave for a mission raise white flags and surrender to Ukraine. Thats a double loss for Putin and his generals.

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u/PropagandaIsUseless Sep 22 '22 edited Sep 22 '22

That's assuming everyone in the same squad also wants to surrender. Russia just made desertion and surrendering illegal (punishment is death) so anyone trying to surrender will be killed by people who are actually pro-Russia.

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u/JohnyyBanana Sep 22 '22

Shoot the traitors that dont want to surrender. Then Surrender.

Im joking i know it doesn’t work like that. Im just baffled how sending thousands who dont want to go in the first place is a good strategy

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u/[deleted] Sep 22 '22 edited Sep 23 '22

But it does work like that, they kill the squad leader/commander. Happened in Vietnam, which had conscription.

Fragging is the deliberate or attempted killing by a soldier of a fellow soldier, usually a superior. U.S. military personnel coined the word during the Vietnam War, when such killings were most often attempted with a fragmentation grenade,[2] sometimes making it appear that the killing was accidental or during combat with the enemy. The term fragging now encompasses any deliberate killing of military colleagues.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fragging

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u/mercset Sep 22 '22

That is how it works. A squad is heavily out numbered but the officer says fight. The privates frag the idiot and walked out. What I am saying is there going to be a lot of infighting when sh!t hits the fan.

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u/Smackdaddy122 Sep 23 '22

russia doesn't have officers in squads

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u/graphixRbad Sep 23 '22

Yeah, all that except the joking part

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u/TARANTULA_TIDDIES Sep 23 '22

Supposedly desertion can be a cause for execution though I'm not sure how well backed by evidence that is.

NKVD used to do it, now supposedly it's the chechens

1

u/AlexBucks93 Sep 23 '22

Russia just made desertion and surrendering illegal

Isn’t it that way in every army?

0

u/CapaneusPrime Sep 23 '22

so anyone trying to surrender will be killed by people who are actually pro-Russia.

I'm not a fan of your use of the term "pro-russia" here. I would make the argument that those who are truly "pro-russia" are against Putin's folly.

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u/bilbo_swagginz_boi Sep 22 '22

Also set fires, destroy rails, and puncture tires

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u/Tyhgujgt Sep 23 '22

It's very hard to do and only a handful will be able to surrender successfully. Most will die in some column before they see the enemy

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u/PracticalStranger317 Sep 22 '22

Lol, you make it sound like simply having 2.5 mil will make a difference. War is not won by sheer numbers either. Try feeding 2.5 mil soldiers on the frontline. WINTER is COMING!! (best catch up on your GOT).

Also from what we know about their equipment, its basically dog shit wrapped in cat shit stuffed into turkey shit.

7

u/vitaminkombat Sep 23 '22

It's not just feeding but moving.

Germany could have invaded Russia in world war 2 but struggled too much with logistics.

Troops, medical, machinery, food, ammunition all needed to be transported hundreds of miles back and forth each day.

2

u/PracticalStranger317 Sep 23 '22

True that. It's logistics. That's what's fucking up the current "supply chain" and causing all these shortages of parts, and jacking up the prices of everything.

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u/valeyard89 Sep 22 '22 edited Sep 24 '22

They just steal food from the locals

2

u/PracticalStranger317 Sep 23 '22

yeah, even then if the locals are all locked up, killed, etc eventually food runs out. who to make the bread? no one to gather the wheat, etc.

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u/greenday5494 Sep 23 '22

That’s also pretty ignorant and filled up on Reddit propaganda if you don’t think 2.5 million fucking people won’t make a difference.

3

u/SpaceShrimp Sep 23 '22

No, without relevant equipment 2.5 million won't do a difference.

Russia is already fielding ancient T-62's in Ukraine, which means they don't have enough military equipment for their current army as it is.

3

u/PracticalStranger317 Sep 23 '22

It's not ignorant, it's a fact. You don't win a war simply by shear number.

Soviet-Finnish war in the 1930's. Soviets outnumbered the Finns.

1

u/remove_snek Sep 23 '22

Yes and the soviets won in the end even after suffering serious defeats in the initial stages. Now Ukraine is not Finland and Russia is not the SU, but just tieing up significant amounts of Ukranian units with these reserves will have an impact.

1

u/It_came_from_below Sep 23 '22

nobody seriously thinks Russia can support 2.5 million troops in Ukraine or that they even get close to that number. They have been having huge supply issues since the start of the war

1

u/Tio_DeeDee Sep 23 '22

Ah, the old shitducken.

1

u/krokodil40 Sep 23 '22

I have said that conscripted soldiers will not make any difference. Point is that if someone doesn't want to serve-should avoid it instead of protesting on the streets. Protests will not make people willing to serve change their minds. Mobilisation will be successful.

As for the numbers. I assume that Russia has 2.5 millions reservists willing to serve. I predict they will mobilise 300 thousands to the frontlines, 300 thousands for rotation and 300 thousands into the reserves. Less than a million. Russia can't keep more than 500 thousands on the frontlines, their logistics is already doesn't exist.

2

u/SnacktimeKC Sep 23 '22

Russia does have a history of giving every other conscript a rifle and sending them into battle.

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u/[deleted] Sep 23 '22

Ukraine would defend itself down to the last man, woman, child... Unless Russia is ready to mobilize more than that they better stand the fuck down.

2

u/anengineerandacat Sep 23 '22

Numbers doesn't mean shit against missile's and bombing runs, if Putin really brings 2.5 million to the front and marches them like he did the last front it's gonna be a lot of dead Russians.

It's an order of magnitude easier to defend than it is to attack in this day and age, big troop movement is easily identified thanks to satellites and shit.

Now if Russia can just teleport in troops somewhere that's a different story, but a lot of people forget about the logistics of moving troops and the support lines needed to do so.

2

u/bjbigplayer Sep 23 '22

Ukraine has 40 million people and 7 million of them are fit for military service. You also severely underestimate the ability of Geeks with Gameboy joysticks sitting in a Kyiv back office mowing down Russian cannon fodder by the hundreds with drones. Sunflower fertilizer.

1

u/krokodil40 Sep 23 '22

I don't think mobilised soldiers will make any difference. Point is that russia is more than capable to draft enough people out of those who want it, so people who doesn't want should avoid conscription.

1

u/MohoPogo Sep 23 '22

Russia will mobilise more than enough soldiers, but they will not make any difference,

See, redditors keep saying this but they omit the fact that Ukraine is already struggling to dislodge Russia from occupied territories as it is. The recent Ukrainian offensive only took back a small percentage of what was lost at the start of the war, and to say that more Russian troops won't make a difference in areas that Ukraine is already unable to take is just naive and wishful thinking.

3

u/WiseassWolfOfYoitsu Sep 23 '22

The biggest difference Ukraine's recent push made is morale. They accomplished more in two weeks than the so called second greatest army in six months, and are in high spirits. Russia is not, and even if they can still make it hard to take ground, the war is only going to get more miserable for them - their supply lines are crap heading in to winter so they'll be cold and hungry, momentum is against them, and they are facing shortages of military supplies just as Ukraine is working through its pivot to western sources of artillery, relieving its biggest supply chain burden. All this as the Russia is just running out of reserves and wiggle room to mitigate the sanctions, to be made worse by 300k working age men suddenly being an expense instead of contributing to the economy.

Ukraine isn't likely to blitz to the border, no. But the question is can Russia hold out without absolutely imploding.

1

u/_kasten_ Sep 23 '22

See, redditors keep saying this

I read the troll-farm outlets. They also seem oddly unenthusiastic about how the extra bodies will somehow do the trick -- it's more "I guess we'll see". Whereas they're outraged that the prisoner exchange included Mariupol soldiers, and they think Putin should just skip ahead to tossing nukes at Berlin, so they are still gulping down all the other Kool-Aid.

1

u/MohoPogo Sep 23 '22

All I am saying is that the onus right now is on Ukraine to throw the invaders out of their territory. I hope they can, but redditors are being naive to sit there and say "oh Russia adding hundreds of thousands of troops will make no difference" when even as it is Ukraine is struggling with the task at hand. Like I said: it's wishful thinking.

1

u/krokodil40 Sep 23 '22

Statement that russian army will fall during the winter isn't mine. It's Strelkov-russian imperialist that started the war in 2014. The bastard wasn't wrong about anything military or warfare related since the start. If he predicts it - 90% it's going to happen.

The recent Ukrainian offensive only took back a small percentage of what was lost at the start of the war, and to say that more Russian troops won't make a difference in areas that Ukraine is already unable to take is just naive and wishful thinking.

I don't trust Ukrainian media. The offensive took a small percentage of the land back because it was accidentally successful. Ukrainians didn't took a lot because they thought russians were capable to resist. Conscription training in Russia isn't good, unlike in Ukraine for the past 8 years. People who doesn't know how to use a gun will not make any difference, they will only free trained soldiers by filling the gaps.

1

u/ohbother12345 Sep 22 '22

This is sad.

1

u/CyberMindGrrl Sep 23 '22

Not only that but Russia has lost air superiority. Those conscripts are walking dead.

1

u/[deleted] Sep 23 '22

[deleted]

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u/wires_dont_talk Sep 23 '22

How many are of fighting age in all of Russia?

1

u/krokodil40 Sep 23 '22

40-50 millions

1

u/DontBanMeBrough Sep 23 '22

the billions haven’t reached the front lines in Ukraine yet. Russia is going to throw their Life hardened bears at the Ukrainian wolves.

War is tragic

1

u/BoxMaleficent Sep 23 '22

There are rumors tho that the russian Border will be closed in a few days. So no Male russians get out

2

u/krokodil40 Sep 23 '22

Russia has the biggest border in the world, some borders aren't guarded at all.

1

u/shieldyboii Sep 23 '22

You underestimate the effect large scale protests can have, even in dictatorships. Whether such protests will happen in sufficient size however, is another question.

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u/krokodil40 Sep 23 '22

I am belarusian, i know the effects of protests in dictatorship on my own experience. If it's unarmed or elites aren't splitted protests are pointless. They need to peacefully sustain protests for years to split the elites, which is impossible in Russia. Second option is violent protests, which is pointless now, because photos of dead protesters will only scare everyone.

Russians need to wait for the second or third wave of mobilisation. Then they will be armed, less people will be satisfied and more people will understand the danger. Right now the internet is full of videos of drunk russian "conscripts".

1

u/DynamicDK Sep 23 '22

Let's assume 10% of them love Putin, want to fight and are dumb. That's already 2.5 millions

If they wanted to fight, they would have already volunteered.

0

u/ESGSGX Sep 23 '22

“but they will not make any difference, cause the winter and not enough equipment for them. Limited protests will not change a thing.” I hope you are right but remember they no longer need to be on the offensive... These additional troops will defend already taken territories… and from what I’m reading defending is much easier than attacking. Ukrainians will only be losing a lot more lives to retake…

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u/krokodil40 Sep 23 '22

They need warm cloth, fuel, equipment, logistics and basic training to survive the next 7 month. They have none. Russian military training is mostly civil jobs