r/worldnews Sep 22 '22 Silver 2 Helpful 4 Wholesome 7 All-Seeing Upvote 2 Take My Energy 1 Take My Power 1

Zelenskyy calls on Russians to 'protest' and 'fight back' against Putin's draft if they 'want to survive' Russia/Ukraine

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323

u/skolioban Sep 22 '22

Well, the saying is a warning to not invade Russia during winter and Putin claims Ukraine is Russia so....

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u/Mytzplk Sep 22 '22

Contrary to belief, if you wanted to invade Russia it would be during winter when your supply lines are the shortest and more manageable.

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u/dylandgs Sep 23 '22

Is it contrary to belief or contrary to it has happened before in history and those who ignore history are doomed to repeat it?

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u/Mytzplk Sep 23 '22

Both Hitler and Napoleon started their invasion of Russia in the summer time and by the time they were at/near Moscow, they were in the middle of the Russian winter. So no, I'm not ignoring history

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u/AccountantNotEditor Sep 23 '22

To be honest, I don’t think that whole cliche is very accurate to begin with. It’d be more accurate to say that one should not fight a war in Russia during the winter, and even then, one could makes arguments. Hitler and Napoleon did not invade in the winter, as you note, but they fell victim to poor planning, leaving them caught out in the Russian winter. I personally believe the real takeaway, regardless of whatever cliche saying is used, should instead be that logistics and planning wins wars, while a lack thereof will doom any army.

It’s very clear that Russia is lacking in the “logistics and planning” department of warfare, and I believe it will ultimately be that which results in their defeat.

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u/ArcanaVision Sep 23 '22

In fact historically Rus was invaded in all seasons, with spring being the worse.

They even made a game about it. https://spacebiff.com/2022/06/20/nevsky/

Where the Teutonic nights tried to take Novgorod.

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u/JumpyButterscotch Sep 23 '22

Shorter? More manageable? The lines would be under a few feet of snow.

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u/fohpo02 Sep 23 '22

Winter also didn’t change the length of the lines, just the elements they endure

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u/Mytzplk Sep 23 '22

Would it be easier to supply your army under a few feet of snow 50 miles away from your borders or 1,000 miles away?

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u/Duff5OOO Sep 23 '22

Yeah im still lost.

if you wanted to invade Russia it would be during winter when your supply lines are the shortest and more manageable.

Why are they shorter and more manageable?

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u/Chroiche Sep 23 '22 edited Sep 23 '22

Start invasion in summer. Supply line is easy to manage and close to border, so short. Winter comes, supply line now needs to be very long and the snow makes it very hard to maintain. Supply lines are now unmanageable and you get blasted to hell, you lose your gains from summer in the process.

Start invasion in winter. Supply line is hard to manage but short, so it's doable. Summer comes, supply line is a fair bit longer but easier to manage. Supply lines have been consistently manageable.

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u/Flitcheroo Sep 23 '22

Because if you just started to invade, you aren’t that far into the country. Therefor your supply lines are shorter.

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u/Duff5OOO Sep 23 '22

So start your invasion in winter because its a bonus that you will be stuck 50km from your border instead of after winter where you could aim to push significantly further? As far as positives go it's up there with "Invade in winter so half your conscripts freeze to death and you only need to get half the rations to the front!"

I mean, I'm no military strategist but that sounds like a really bad idea.

It seems like Putins going to try a form of this just before winter either way.

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u/martin519 Sep 23 '22

Maybe they're saying that you start in winter and assuming expansion goes into spring? Yeah I'm stretching to understand this too.

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u/TSnydes Sep 23 '22

They are saying (I am not saying this is correct): In a hypothetical invasion of Russia you would want to start in the Winter.

This assumes the attacking nation has prepared for a Winter invasion prior to attacking (cold weather gear is standard issue, extra vehicular resources prepared, etc).

This also assumes that the front lines were closer to the home country original boarders making supplying those troops easier in Winter.

This then assumes that as the weather warms the troops will have Spring, Summer, and Fall to reach some achievement.

This finally assumes that the achievement (assuming capture Moscow and some other vital cities) was achieved by Fall thus ending the war.

I would say that the Spring is actually worse than Winter because the mud cannot be as easily overcome as snow. This may have been accurate in the 19th or 20th century, but today victory is not attained through the capture of cities (as Napoleon found out), so who is to say you would not create an Afghanistan or Vietnam. I would say all nations are more sensitive to death than they used to be, so a full scale invasion of a developed country where attrition from weather cause armies to die would not happen. I would also say Nuclear weapons would end the conflict before it even started.

Fun thought experiment, but probably useless nowadays.

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u/Duff5OOO Sep 23 '22

Maybe they are just hoping Putin follows some shit advice from reddit and sends his people into frozen hell.

Life is going to suck for these conscripts in winter. Ukraine is going to be kitted out in the best cold weather gear we can ship them. How much cold can one endure before they turn/surrender?

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u/LPNDUNE Sep 23 '22

Pretty sure we have the technology to move snow from roads in this day and age.

Solid ground across plains and agricultural areas,as well as being able to move across rivers and lakes freely makes moving supplies easier in the cold.

Spring mud and open water extend your timelines way more than snow on roads.

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u/vanguarde Sep 23 '22

Why would it be shorter? Certainly not more manageable.

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u/littleseizure Sep 23 '22

I think mean starting in winter vs starting in summer and getting to winter - might as well resupply in snow at the start of an invasion than at the end when you’re 1000 miles in

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u/nebaa Sep 23 '22

During summer the supply lines expand due to thermal expansion, learn some physics smh my head

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u/Several_Swordfish481 Sep 23 '22

When you start an invasion you are not very far from your homeland once you start to take territory, assuming success, as your invasion continues, your occupying soldiers become located farther and farther from your homeland.

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u/the_YellowRanger Sep 23 '22

He done fucked up.

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u/KingoftheMongoose Sep 23 '22

Never start a land war in Asia!

...whoops